One of the few things that make living on this planet tolerable might be disappearing - Part 3

A World Without Chocolate

The countdown has started for chocolate lovers. Clocks are synchronised for the year 2020, when a possible lack of cocoa could embitter the palates of many, due to a combination of an increase in demand and a decrease in supply. The news broke at the end of 2014, when the results of a market trend analysis were released by the multinational company Barry Callebaut and picked up by several newspapers.

But is the future of cocoa really so dark? According to Pamela Thornton, who analyses the cocoa market, "2020 has been a media fabrication; it is not taken seriously by people within the cocoa research community". But she does admit to having some concerns about chocolate's future. "The climatic phenomenon El Nino will take place in Ecuador and Indonesia and we have noticed dryer than normal weather in West Africa. 2015 will see a shortage of cocoa and it will be quite substantial, probably of 250,000 tonnes, the biggest in several years. In the meantime the demand is growing 2-2.5 percent every year."

The future of the fruit is a puzzle of many parts, including the consequences of climate change and El Nino's arrival in Ecuador, increased consumption in populous parts of Asia, such as India, and the transition towards new models of production, as is already happening in Brazil.

Part 3 - India

The sweet fever comes from the west

On the other side of the globe to where it is produced, cocoa's new consumers are to be found. These are people like 24-year-old Rekha Pawao, from Navi Mumbai, a township where 50,000 people live in huts that are no bigger than five square metres. She usually buys mini packets of chocolate from the kiosk next to the school where she teaches, but these 10g portions for five rupees (around $0.075) can be found on any sweet stand across the city.

Rekha Pawao, a teacher in the school where she works.

Her husband works in rock extraction and she teaches maths, Hindi and English to children aged between three and six. There are no chairs, tables or blackboards at her school so the children sit together on the floor of the small classroom. "It is true that goods like chocolate, for instance, do get here. However, the people that live in these slums, like these children's families, only eat it during special occasions and celebrations. It is not an everyday thing for someone who has to ensure a daily meal," says Rajashree Nayak from the Arphen NGO, who manages the school where Rekha teaches.

Chocolate may not be affordable for everyone here, but it has certainly captivated a significant portion of Indian society. Consumption per capita has grown from 50g to 120g over the past five years. That may not seem like so much when compared to the 9kg per capita consumed by the Swiss, but when multiplied by the 1.2 billion inhabitants of India, it is equal to the weight of 30,000 Asian elephants. And it is a trend that does not look likely to revert. In fact, according to the market research company Mintel, it will have increased by 60 percent by 2019. The greatest increase registered so far is in the consumption of chocolate aimed at children and featuring surprises on the inside, which grew by 30 percent in 2014, according to the Euromonitor marketing research company. "In the last 20 years with globalisation, the way of life of the Indians has changed and their wages have increased, and a new system of values has developed between the respect to their traditions and the imitation of the Western world," explains Pralhad Jogdand, a professor of sociology at Mumbai University. "Chocolate means modernity, as we see in the advertising posters we find around Mumbai with Bollywood actresses as protagonists."

Source: Mintel, market research company.

In the Mumbai neighbourhood of Colaba, chocolates and pastries have largely replaced more traditional Indian sweets as the after-dinner food of choice. And many of those with a sweet tooth head to the famous Theobroma Patisserie, where 90 percent of the desserts are made from chocolate. Between the cakes and pain au chocolat, the renowned patisserie chef Kainaz Messman sometimes introduces recipes that combine chocolate with more local flavours, such as green cardamom, ginger and other spices. "Chocolate isn't native to India," says the 34-year-old chef. "Before, it was just a sporadic pleasure. My generation has been the first to have access to this good in the last 30 years." Now, he says, "chocolate is replacing typical Indian sweets as a gift in all the festivities."

And it seems that even Hindu deities love chocolate. In the Thekkan Pazhani Sree temple in Allepey city, the most common offering to the gods are bars of milk chocolate, often bought from the stand at the temple's entrance. In the little shop, the purple chocolate wrappers stand out from among the colourful carnation and seed necklaces. They are the preferred offering of students looking for help from the gods to successfully pass their exams. "Nine years ago, one student started this tradition that continues to today," says Syam, a member of the temple. From six-year-old Anantha Krishnan to 20-year-old engineering student Arya, everyone seems to think that chocolate could help secure them good marks. They come the day before their exams to deposit the chocolate in front of the deity.

Now even the gods may be looking towards the thickening clouds on the other side of the world with mistrust, as El Nino threatens future supplies of this food Indians have come to love, and upon which many Ecuadorians and Brazilians depend.

Devotees give chocolate to Lord Murugan.

Students at the entrance to the Thekkan Pazhani temple show the chocolate bars they have brought as offerings.

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