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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov |
US
Secretary of State Kerry's latest offer for all Jihadis to leave Aleppo appears
to be an attempt to get the Russians to agree to a ceasefire in order to
preserve the Al-Qaeda controlled pocket in eastern Aleppo until after Obama
leaves the Presidency in January. However Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov
called Kerry's bluff by demanding that the US come up with concrete proposals
and a definite timetable for the Jihadis' withdrawal.
As news filters in of the Syrian army’s capture of another formerly Jihadi
controlled district of eastern Aleppo, and of talks between the Russians and
Jihadi representatives in the Turkish capital Ankara, there comes news of further
discussions between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary State
Kerry in Geneva.
That
Lavrov and Kerry are talking at all may come as a surprise to many people.
Just a few weeks ago – on the eve of the US Presidential election – all the
talk was of the US refusing to talk to the Russians further, and of the
Russians being arraigned on war crimes charges.
Now
Lavrov is saying that Kerry came to Geneva on 2nd December 2016 and “finally
presented proposals on Aleppo in line with Russia’s stance”.
In
reality, though the fact has been little reported in the media, the last few
weeks have witnessed frantic diplomatic activity, with the UN repeatedly
calling for a ceasefire in Aleppo to enable it to send humanitarian supplies
there, further denunciations of Russia’s actions by the US and other Western
governments, and a further attempt by the French to propose a Resolution to the
UN Security Council to impose a ceasefire.
The
reason this activity has attracted so little attention is that they are action
carried out by ghosts.
No
one takes seriously the diplomatic manoeuvres of US and French governments that
are in the last weeks and months of their respective lives, and which are
likely to be replaced by new governments that take a diametrically opposite
view of the Syrian conflict than they do.
There
is also the factor that with the military situation in eastern Aleppo
approaching its endgame, no one any longer seriously believes these diplomatic manoeuvres
are going to change anything.
Possibly
the most surreal event of all was a bizarre debate in Britain’s House of
Commons, called at the insistence of a group of over 200 British MPs who demanded
that the British air force air drop supplies to “relieve the suffering” of
eastern Aleppo.
The
idea that the British air force could challenge the Russians where even the
mighty US air force refuses to go is beyond ridiculous, and the whole debate –
complete with the government’s failure to call the demand ridiculous, and the heckling
of a government minister when he tried (weakly) to explain some of the
realities – shows just how delusional on the subject of Aleppo and Syria some
people in Britain have become.
In
light of this it comes as no surprise to read in The Economist that there were
even some people presumably in Britain (since The Economist is a British
magazine) who apparently seriously proposed there
“Out-manoeuvred,
Western diplomats have discussed lifting the siege by digging tunnels…..” (!)
As
for the proposals Kerry presented to Lavrov, we have no details but Lavrov has
made absolutely clear what the Russian demands are
“Moscow
is ready to immediately send our military experts and diplomats to Geneva to
work out joint actions with our US colleagues in line with the [new] American
proposals, which would ensure the withdrawal of all militants without
exception from eastern Aleppo, and would provide unimpeded humanitarian
supplies to the city’s residents and ensure the establishment of normal life in
eastern Aleppo.”
This
has been the consistent Russian demand since at least the summer, as reported
by The Duran, but so far as I know nowhere else.
As
we have also previously explained, the US appeared to accede to this demand in
the Kerry-Lavrov agreement of this September. However the US failed to do
what it had agreed to do, which was get the Al-Qaeda led Jihadis to withdraw
from eastern Aleppo by way of the Castello road. The reasons for this was
divisions within the US administration, with the hardline group in the
ascendant acting in a way that was intended – as Lavrov today also said
“…[to]
take the heat off Al-Nusra, which directs the militants in the un-liberated
parts of eastern Aleppo,…”
Will
this latest offer from Kerry amount to anything? The Russians are
insisting that before anything happens there must be a concrete agreement on a
timetable for the Jihadis’ withdrawal. Though Lavrov is offering to send
experts to Geneva to work on this offer, he made it clear that any meeting must
not be a meeting for a meeting’s sake
“It
must not be a meeting for the sake of a meeting. It is necessary to agree on a
detailed timeline of steps.”
These
comments of Lavrov’s highlight the deep mistrust the Russians now have towards
the Obama administration. Plainly what they will not agree to is a
ceasefire with the terms and the timetable of the withdrawal left to be
discussed later. They are insisting on a definite commitment – one
binding on the Jihadis – for them to withdraw completely from eastern Aleppo by
a specific date.
In
reality – as Lavrov almost certainly knows – Kerry’s latest proposals probably
are a last desperate bid to get the Russians to agree to a ceasefire in Aleppo
so that what is left of the Jihadi pocket can be preserved intact until after
Obama’s final departure in January.
That
way Obama would be spared the humiliation of having the Jihadi pocket fall
whilst he is still President, so that the blame for its eventual fall can be
passed on by him and the members of his administration onto Donald Trump.
Lavrov’s
comments suggest that the Russians are in no mood to help Obama in this way,
and given the appalling state relations between the US and Russia have fallen
to under his Presidency, it is difficult to see why they would do so.
Source: The Duran
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