What’s Really Behind President Trump Beating the War Drums Against Iran?

Other than the loss of an important client state, plus the thought of revenge over the 1979 Hostage Crisis, which was followed by a botched rescue attempt that cost American lives, what’s really behind President Donald Trump and his Administration’s denunciation of the Iran nuclear pact? Moreover, and since some not only see revenge and retaliation as sweet but forever, what did National Security Advisor General H.R. McMaster mean when he said a “marker” has to be met for U.S. allies and Iran to fix the “weak” deal?

But first, a U.S. war with Iran is not only inevitable, it’s already occurring. Skyrocketing arms shipments to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain-where some are used against population centers close to Iran-is a constant reminder the U.S. will continue its policy of low intensity warfare. The same can be said of its proxy wars in Yemen and Syria that have killed thousands, let alone the full-fledged invasions in nearby Afghanistan and Iraq. And then there’s the constant threat of covert operations followed by a military coup.

Hezbollah’s recent capture of 3 Mossad agents, and the anti-aircraft battery/fighter jet trade-off between Syria and Israel, merely pit’s a Greater Iran against a Greater Israel.

Who Rules Geography and Energy Resources Rules the World
Along with controlling Iran’s oil and natural gas, where it ranks number three in the world in oil reserves and number two in gas reserves, some U.S. strategists see the nation ideally located. To be sure, Iran virtually straddles all of the Greater Middle East’s energy producing areas and shipping lanes, lying either in the Persian Gulf or the Caspian region and to the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, China, and Indian Ocean. Consequently, a number of inter-nation pipelines have already been built, with many more planned.

What Eurasia’s heartland is to northern Asian and European powers, Greater Iran is to southern Asian and a Middle East-African nexus. The only difference is instead of a food producing land power, this Afro-Mid-Asia heartland consists of an energy producing land AND sea power. Indeed, Greater Iran is buffeted annually with warm water ports as compared to Eurasia’s cold water ports that are frozen part of the year. What’s more, Greater Iran has nearby and ready access to several seas and a major ocean-Indian.

It might be dangerous to speak in terms of Iran’s destiny, since it implies an acceptance of determinism, but in many respects weren’t they the world’s first superpower-Persia?

Militarily and Religiously Speaking…Actually Prophesying
Unlike Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, UAE, and Oman, the U.S. is also well aware of how Iran dominates the entire Persian Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz where 55 percent of the world’s crude oil passes. Given that Iran has 300 miles of Arabian Sea frontage, plus the 1,356 nautical miles alongside the Persian Gulf mind you, bays, inlets, coves, and islands make Iran’s coast excellent places for hiding suicide, tanker- and destroyer-ramming speedboats. The same holds true for the most deadliest surface to ground and air missiles

Meanwhile, Evangelicals advising the President see a stable Iran, with its pretentious Iranian rulers and clerics, as an apocalyptic threat. In addition to warning of an ongoing “religious breakout” in all directions, they’ve clashed with Iranian religious influence in the former Soviet republics of the Caucasus and Central Asia, let alone Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Turkey, and eastern Mediterranean. Iranian Shiites fighting in Lebanon, Hamas-controlled Gaza, and parts of Syria is moreover a threat to Israel.

Another troublesome omen is Iran’s supreme religious leaders-a consequence of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Most agreed when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei not only dismissed President Trump’s aggressive criticism as “rants and whoppers,” or said “with or without President Trump Iran will stick to its nuclear commitments,” but assured everyone that “this time, too, America will be slapped and defeated by the nation of Iran.”

Cultures of Paradox and Innovation
In “The Revenge Of Geography,” Robert Kaplan wrote, “There is noting artificial about Iran, in other words: the very competing power centers within its clerical regime indicate a greater level of institutionalization than almost anywhere in the region save for Israel and Turkey.” Can the same be said of Iran’s cultural heritage and innovativeness? To be sure, is not the “Idea of Iran” paradoxical, filled with religious fundamentals on the one hand, and yet on the other known for great works of art, writing, and inventiveness?

In the meantime, the U.S. realizes that no other nation in the world can boast of juggling a progressively and somewhat secularized Green Movement, or the arrival of the Mahdi-prophesied redeemer of Islam-in the form of the hidden Twelfth Imam. With these ideas in themselves as a spur to radical activism, including Ayatollahs and a clerical hierarchy, and a modern Islamic intelligentsia filled with art and literary critics, the U.S. knows it must tread lightly in dealing with a culturally bleak but “land of poets and roses!”

Clearly given Iran’s geography, history, and human capital, it seems likely the Middle East, and by extension Eurasia and Africa, will certainly be affected by Iran’s own political, cultural, religious and, of course, nuclear evolution-for better or for worse

What to Imagine With Or Without The Trump Administration
The Trump Administration and Joint Chiefs of Staff might have done their homework, but as long as there’s Russia and China-including a Europe-don’t expect sanctions to work either-let alone another military overthrow. To be sure, and with Russia declaring a “New Russia,” and China heralding a new era for it to transform itself into a “mighty force,” in today’s economy natural gas and oil is just as important as food products. So too is a stable Iran, a stable Iran that is which will in no way be dominated by the U.S.

Despite the Trump Administration’s war drums and efforts to decertify the treaty with Iran, Iran’s fundamental revolution and singular legacy won’t allow it to forgo its nuclear enrichment ambitions. In the meantime, its nuclear program attests to Iran’s fortitude of overcoming great odds, including keeping Israel in check which it despises. With or without President Trump, expect a Greater Iran athwart the pipeline routes of Central Asia, along with its sub-state actors, a kind of empire-of-sorts in the Middle East.(1)

Elusive Markers and Redeemers Anyone?
As far as a “marker,” that has to be met for Iran to fix the “weak” deal, not only is revenge sweet but so too is the thought “never forgive.” Therefore, expect the markers to be just as elusive and preemptive as the one’s established for Saddam Hussein and Iraq’s WMD program. But Iran is no Iraq, nor is the U.S. the same. There’s still so much that hangs on a thread, a thread that will be left up to the decisions of President Trump and his counsel of generals, politicians and Evangelicals-who have there own redeemer of Christianity and Judaism-in Washington.

Dallas Darling is the author of Politics 501: An A-Z Reading on Conscientious Political Thought and Action, Some Nations Above God: 52 Weekly Reflections On Modern-Day Imperialism, Militarism, And Consumerism in the Context of John‘s Apocalyptic Vision, and The Other Side Of Christianity: Reflections on Faith, Politics, Spirituality, History, and Peace. He is a correspondent for www.worldnews.com. You can read more of Dallas’ writings at www.beverlydarling.com and wn.com//dallasdarling.)

(1) Kaplan, Robert D. The Revenge Of Geography. New York, New York: Random House, 2012., p. 278.