A Long Legal Battle: A Decision Favourable to Lula Does Not Imply Definitive Freedom

The political battle in Brazil continues to develop in the judicial scenario.

The decision of federal judge Rogerio Favreto yesterday to grant a habeas corpus to Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva, which would allow him to develop his electoral pre-campaign in freedom, is just one of the many legal moves that have to take place in the coming weeks.

In fact, the decision of the Regional Federal Court of the Fourth Region was immediately answered by another judge, Sérgio Moro, who sentenced Lula to twelve years in prison. Moro would be trying to prevent the execution of Favreto's release order.

In any case, the release of Lula through this resource does not mean that his path towards the candidacy has been paved, which in practice is the route back to the Planalto Palace, given the magnitude of his leadership. The fundamental decision is still pending and before this occurs, there will be many other court cases.

A long process
The judicialization of Brazilian politics is not something sudden. Strictly speaking, it began in 2016 with the political-judicial move that took Dilma Rousseff out of the presidency, to replace the infiltrated neoliberal Michel Temer in her place. This has allowed the right to annul the social policies of the Lula-Dilma era and has turned Brazil into a component of the operation against Venezuela in the hemispheric scenario.

The second phase of this offensive has been to annul Lula's option to return to the presidency, given that all opinion polls indicate that he would be the winner in any electoral process.

Lula was prosecuted for the alleged possession of an apartment in Guarajá, São Paulo, allegedly the result of the bribery of a powerful business group. In the process it was not demonstrated that Lula or someone from his environment is the owner of the property or that he has lived there. Not even that he had used it temporarily. Despite all this, the former president was convicted of passive corruption and money laundering.

The sentence was ratified in the second instance. For that reason, and in accordance with the provisions of a law known as the Clean Record, it is assumed that Lula cannot stand as a candidate for the presidential elections to be held in October. However, the ruling is not final because Lula still has the possibility of appealing to higher authorities.

The presidential candidacies must be formalized in August before the Superior Electoral Tribunal, which has the power to review whether or not they meet the requirements. It is assumed that the electoral entity will disqualify Lula due to his judicial status.

The TSE has several weeks to perform this review. Meanwhile, Lula will remain technically the presidential candidate of the Workers' Party. And the scenario will be very different if, in that period, the standard-bearer is in the streets, or if he is still behind bars.

If the TSE (equivalent to the Venezuelan National Electoral Council) cancels the registration of Lula, its decision can be appealed before the Federal Supreme Court (equivalent to our Supreme Court of Justice). This means that Lula could still be in this kind of legal limbo when the first round of elections is held. Under that hypothesis, another legal battle is expected around whether or not Lula will have the right to appear on the ballot papers.

If Lula reaches the first round, it is taken for granted that he will go to the second. In such a situation, the legal struggle will continue. If the decision of the Federal Superior Court were contrary to Lula, that is, if he declared his candidacy null and void after the first round, the candidate who has occupied the third place in that round would be favored.

Even the lawyers say that it could happen that Lula wins the second round and then the cancellation of his candidacy by the highest court. That would force Brazil to call other elections within three months and deliver the head of state to the president of Congress.

¿And the street?
Of course, this long legal battle has its correlate in the situation that is generated around the candidacy of Lula. If the masses pressure enough, the decisions of the electoral and judicial bodies could be favorable to the former president.

Several of the judicial scenarios described above could have very strong responses in mass mobilization, especially if the cancellation of the candidacy occurs after the first round or after a final victory.

Some Brazilian analysts believe that Judge Favreto's decision could be a precursor to an early ruling by the Federal Superior Court that annuls the judgment against Lula. This would completely eliminate the barriers to his candidacy and, virtually, make him the new president of Brazil.

A quick decision of the Federal Superior Court could also be adverse to Lula, which would cut his candidacy. In this situation, the PT would have to present another candidate. Among those mentioned for this role of "emerging" are Fernando Haddad, former mayor of Sao Paulo, and Jaques Wagner, former governor of Bahia. In such a scenario, the objective of the PT would be to retake the political power to, eventually, look for a legal formula that allows the definitive liberation of Lula.

It could be said that the legal battle has had a crucial moment this weekend, but it is a telenovela that still has many episodes left.

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