Two months have passed since Hurricane Felix smashed into the north Caribbean Coast of Nicaragua, destroying more than 350 communities and entire forests - fifty days of torrential rains in the western, north-central regions and on the Pacific side added to the national disaster - and the damage continues.

President Daniel Ortega declared a State of Emergency on October 19. He called on legislators to revise the national budget to free up resources for emergency reconstruction, repair, and rehabilitation work.

The rains and flooding resulted in a serious leptospirosis epidemic that is spreading from its epicenter in Chinandega to other provinces. Over 1,650 people have been infected and ten have died from the bacteria.

The FSLN government has acted decisively to try to contain the spread of disease � a difficult challenge given the vast number of contaminated wells, rivers, lakes, and ponds. The army and health ministry are mobilized in affected regions and grass roots groups are mobilizing.

Rosario Murillo, Coordinator of the government�s Communication and Citizenry Council and a national leader of the Citizens� Power Councils, called for mobilization of the CPCs to counter the spread of disease.

The National Assembly approved the government�s proposed reforms to the national budget on October 31. Seventy-one of the 91 deputies approved the reform, which includes emergency allocation of US$2.8 million for repairing part of the 3,000 kilometers of destroyed or damaged roads. The reforms came as part of a package to freeze repayment of a sizeable part of the internal debt and allocate those financial resources to reconstruction and rehabilitation. The budget reform will make available US$48 million of a $220 million debt owed to a handful of powerful and wealthy bond holders, who acquired that paper wealth in a scam still under official investigation.

The mood around the rehabilitation and reconstruction campaigns is a marked contrast to the corruption of the Liberal government of Arnoldo Aleman during and after Hurricane Mitch in 1988. Donated funds found their way into Miami bank accounts and the construction of sumptuous beach front retreats on the Pacific Ocean.

The disaster in the Pacific and north-central zones comes on top of the horrendous destruction wrought by Hurricane Felix on the other side of the country. The category five hurricane left behind nearly 200,000 victims now mostly homeless. Well over 100 people were killed and the toll continues to rise. More than 100 are reported missing, presumed perished. Eighty percent of the social and economic infrastructure of the regional capital city of Bilwi (Puerto Cabezas) was seriously damaged or destroyed.

Damage to forests is estimated to be around US1 billion, an economic measure that does not encompass long term ecological degradation and loss of biodiversity, nor the spiritual grief this inflicts on peoples for whom trees and forests are kindred spirits.  Both the Nicaraguan government and the United Nations World Food Programme declared a state of emergency for the region, and humanitarian assistance poured in from many parts of the world. 

Here is a thumbnail sketch of the scope of the natural disaster, based on data available as of October 31 compiled from reports in El Nuevo Diario and government press releases:

• 109 deaths caused directly or indirectly by torrential rains and floods
• 135 people disappeared, many now presumed dead
• 22,840 destroyed or semi-destroyed houses
• More than 30 bridges destroyed
• More than 150 churches and health centers destroyed
• More than 2 million quintals of coffee at risk of being lost because of the destruction of 500 kilometers of roads in the north-central region
• On the national level more than 3,000 kilometers of roads destroyed in the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN), and western and north-central regions
• More than 200,000 people victimized
• More than 107,000 hectares of different kinds of crops lost
• 894,900 hectares of forests knocked down, amounting to an estimated US$1 billion dollars of future economic loss
• 45,000 head of cattle lost
• More than 1600 cases of leptospirosis
• Seven of the country's 17 provinces were impacted
  The destruction of the country's already precarious rural transport system is, next to the spread of disease, the most urgent problem the country must resolve rapidly. Unless road access is quickly restored the country's production and marketing of basic foods for consumption and export are all threatened.

Worse than Hurricane Mitch

The huge volume of rainfall over the past month dwarfs the 130 millimeters deposited over the Pacific region by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Since October 14th, 600 millimeters of water have fallen on Chinandega and Le�n.

Prices of beans, bread, corn, rice, egg, dairy produce, cooking oil, and poultry have skyrocketed. Public demonstrations have taken place to demand price controls, but thus far few official measures of that kind have been taken. Bakers in Managua and Le�n have resisted a government ruling against a proposed hike in bread prices, because the price of flour has also gone up.

Some sectors that are extremely hostile to the FSLN are looking for ways to take advantage of hunger and desperation to create violent incidents and set grassroots sectors against one another. On October 30, for example, about a hundred sympathizers of the Liberal Alliance Party (ALN) in Puerto Cabezas stormed and pillaged the municipal food depot, and threatened to occupy the regional airport.

Led by ALN representative Jaime Chow, they later besieged the municipal government offices. Yatama (Sons of Mother Earth), the main Misikitu indigenous party and the major force in the autonomous regional government, mobilized its forces to counter the ALN mob.

Some factors in the rapid rise in food prices are beyond the control of the Nicaraguan government � for example, there is a worldwide trend of rising prices for most basic grain, allegedly fueled by increased demand in China and India. Corn prices have fluctuated wildly in response to ethanol related speculation. In the last two years Nicaragua�s petroleum costs have doubled, a burden that gets quickly shifted onto the backs of consumers.

Hoarding and speculation fuel price gauging

Significant national activities also contribute to stinging inflation. Daily and lengthy power cuts undermine the efficiency of production, transport, and marketing, adding to costs across the board. Private sector hoarding and speculative trading distort price structures and induce a psychology of passing on costs to helpless consumers. Privileging the lucrative El Salvador bean market directly adds to scarcity and price gouging in our country. Dionisio Marenco, Managua�s mayor and a central FSLN leader, is calling on the government to stop export of basic grains until national food supplies are guaranteed. Grassroot sectors are backing his position.

Meanwhile the government has suspended the 30% tariff on beans, in order to facilitate their import. A shortage of red beans on the world market, however, had made that option less attractive. Capitalist market conditions inevitably lead to skyrocketing prices. A pound of beans now sells for over $1 in local markets, more than chicken and some other meats. That means that families living on $1 a day (over 35% of the population) will have to do without their main staple most of the week. And it means greater costs for the state when it must cope with the inevitable health and social problems produced by greater levels of malnutrition and hunger.

Farmers and economists are gravely concerned about lack of seeds for the next planting season (the Apante). Traditionally, Apante planting would begin by mid October, but we now face delays because of lack of seeds and other inputs. 

Laura de Clementi, UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) local representative, told participants in a Managua Food and Nutrition Security Festival, October 20, that the FAO had already secured $2 million of the $3 million needed to guarantee the current planting season.

"Failure to plant now could mean famine next year,� she warned.

Ministry of Agriculture spokespersons informed the gathering of government plans to increase the levels of support from agronomists and other specialists to attempt to guarantee a good Apante.

The National Workers' Union Federation (UNE), led by Sandinista National Assembly deputy Gustavo Porras, who is also the leader of the health workers union FETSALUD, is leading a campaign to repudiate a large part of the country's internal debt, owned mainly by private banks who acquired the capital and deposits fraudulently from "failed" banks six years ago�the infamous Cenis (Certificados negociables de inversi�n) bond scam referred to above. Both the State Prosecutor�s Office and the Auditor General have declared the Cenis bonds to be illegal and official fraud investigations are still underway.

The National Assembly met in extraordinary session October 30 and approved President Ortega's proposal for a legislated two-year freeze on principal and interest payments for the Cenis bonds. After Daniel Ortega and members of the cabinet and army made special presentations on the crisis, the President heard interventions from deputies of all parties in the assembly. The mood was generally supportive of the government�s proposals, but the deputies also expressed criticisms of shortcomings in the proposals by the Executive Branch. However, all the opposition party caucuses in the parliament�the ALN, the PLC, and the MRS Alliance�offered support in principle to the debt moratorium proposal.

Banks default on tax payments

In addition to the freeze on the Cenis bond payments, the government contemplates negotiating with the banking community for longer payment periods and lower interest rates when the freeze is lifted. President Ortega has also called on financial groups that have recently sold bank shares to pay the corresponding taxes-an obligation they have successfully ignored ever since defeating the FSLN in the 1990 elections. The most glaring current case involves the powerful Pellas group and its Banco de America Central (BAC), which sold shares to General Electric, and Ernesto Fern�ndez Holmann�s Banco Uno, which was sold to Citigroup.

ALN leader Eduardo Montealegre said that the ALN favors a new government agreement on debt payment to bondholders.  He is one of the country's biggest bankers and part of the Cenis scam. But he told the newspaper La Prensa last week that he now believes "bankers holding bonds as a result of obtaining deposits from fraudulently collapsed banks should sit down with the government, the Central Bank, and the Ministry of Finance to re-finance them."

The first countries to react with significant solidarity aid have been Nicaragua's main partners in ALBA, Venezuela and Cuba, and also Peru, which just cancelled an old US$50 million debt. ALBA is an international cooperation organization based on promoting social, political, and economic integration of the nations and countries of Indo-Latin America and the Caribbean.

A high level Venezuelan government delegation arrived in Managua, October 19, to discuss emergency response measures with authorities and experts. It was headed by Venezuela�s Foreign Minister Nicol�s Maduro. The delegation�s mandate was to prepare a joint Nicaragua-Venezuela study to serve as the basis for establishing concrete aid and cooperation agreements to respond to the disaster.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez called Daniel Ortega to announce that ALBA had decided to create a "Sandino Fund" to support countries devastated by natural causes. Oil and US$6 million worth of laminated zinc roofing sheets and related housing construction materials are on their way.

Cuban medical aid

Cuban medical and disaster control specialists are working side by side with technical personnel from various government ministries to cope with the web of problems related to disease and epidemic control, contaminated water, lack of latrines, and overcrowded and undersupplied hospitals and clinics in the devastated areas.

On October 23, Nicaragua's Sandinista government leaders met with representatives of foreign governments accredited in Managua. They have set up a Mesa de Cooperantes (Cooperate Group) to coordinate their cooperation and aid initiatives.  Nicaraguan authorities presented them with a documented request for almost US$400 million for rehabilitation and reconstruction in the RAAN and on the Pacific side of the country. Stuart Hughes, Canada�s diplomatic representative in the Region, expressed the Mesa�s positive response to the government�s appeal.

Since Hurricane Felix hit land just north of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua has received US$13 million in international aid, and an additional US$13.2 million in-kind donation. Major donors, after Cuba, Venezuela, and Peru, are: European Union ($1.4 million), Denmark ($2 million), United Nations ($5 million), Norway ($1.3 million), USA ($3.2 million). Of a total of US$54 million pledged for building reconstruction, only $20.7 has been received in cash or materials thus far.

Four guiding precepts for disaster response

Despite its evident dependence on longstanding functionaries in state ministries, the new government has managed to establish a different philosophy and approach to disaster relief from that of the last three administrations. Its response is distinguished by at least four fundamental precepts:

• Nicaraguan authorities and technical personnel act in the knowledge that these disasters are caused by human activity. Flooding in Nicaragua is partly caused by extensive deforestation, leading to a draught-flood syndrome.
  
• They also recognize that natural disasters hit poor and marginalized sectors harder than others. Therefore economic and fiscal priorities must be altered to fit that reality.
  
• Key agencies and ministries handling the disaster endeavor to draw grassroots sectors into efforts to minimize the spread of disease and to address the threat of famine.
  
• The fledgling government looks to international solidarity. It views multi-lateral and also grassroots international cooperation as a complement to, and not a substitute for, domestic solidarity and state responsibility. The central government, working in tandem with the RAAN autonomous regional government, has already made important links with solidarity initiatives in a number of developed countries.
  
  Whatever successes or failures take place in the disaster response campaign, the government is relatively disabled in its ability to resolve, in the short or medium run, the negative economic and social impact of recent events. Prices are spiraling out of control and the blight of unemployment has spread.

The National Energy Institute has just granted permission to the privatized electrical companies to apply a 7% rate increase over the next two months. Nor has it excluded the likelihood of another 8% increase in January 2008. This decision provokes anger and rejection among broad sectors, although no opposition party intervened in the latest National Assembly session. The impact of these increases will be passed on to consumers and the poor in multiple forms, including increases in prices of products and services.

The mood amongst common people is reflective of a growing disdain for politicians and would-be leaders, who use human tragedy as a political springboard. Many, if not most people would love to shout, "To hell with politicians, we want help and relief from the disaster, from impossible food and energy prices, from lack of medicines in the hospitals, from unemployment, from violence and robberies."

Only a serious effort to confront the national emergency and to make the rich oligarchy share the burden of the costs of reconstruction and rehabilitation of agriculture can begin to shore up confidence and hope.

The current core of FSLN leaders around Daniel Ortega's government and the party National Directorate often take flak for an apparent command-style leadership and centralized decision- making. Nevertheless, they appear to be more in touch with popular moods than opposition critics, and clearly more so than their more hysterical opponents in the right-wing media like "La Prensa".

The subdued critical support offered by opposition politicians to the government's emergency fiscal proposals suggest that they also sense this political advantage now enjoyed by the Ortega administration and its supporters in the regions and municipalities.

This writer -by no means an "impartial" observer - has noted signs of a new mood in the country favorable to solidarity as the most likely way out of this tragic crisis. If this is true (and I admit it remains to be validated in concrete deeds), then a major turnabout may be underway in Nicaragua, a turn away from the "save your own hide" mentality that has characterized the last 17 years of neo-liberal regime.

Some amazing examples of elementary human response are:

• Nursery operators in Estel�, also hard hit by rains and flooding, are donating seedlings to help reforestation in areas flattened by Hurricane Felix.
  
• The UNAN- Le�n medical school sent brigades to disaster areas in the RAAN. Made up of fourth and fifth year medical students, they attended over 4,000 patients during September and October in Bilwi, Salsa and Tasba Pri. The UNAN- Le�n emergency committee has decided to remain in permanent session to be able to also turn its attention to rainstorm victims on the Pacific side of the country. 
  
• Managua�s Sandinista Radio La Primerisima cooperative has been campaigning to aid Krukira, a Miskitu community in the RAAN. Their campaign has led the station to step up its coverage of issues concerning Caribbean Coast people, helping to overcome general ignorance in Managua about the autonomous regions [see: http://amicsdepuertocabezas.
  blogspot.com/2007/09/crnica-i-acte-dentrega-dajuda-krukira.html].

Solidarity action from abroad is also vital. Here are two examples:

The Centre for Research on Latin America and the Caribbean�s initiative at Canada�s York University support reconstruction efforts at the Bilwi-Kamla campus of URACCAN, a local coop TV cable service, and local autonomous RAAN government programs. [See: http://www.yorku.ca/cerlac/felix.htm].

The Hurricane Felix News website (Topix) is a powerful tool available to many different initiatives to aid Felix victims. [See  http://www.topix.net  or  http://www.topix.net/hurricane/hurricane-felix].

Hemispheric indigenous solidarity conference to assemble in the RAAN
This wave of hope and sharing can build on the heritage of the broad solidarity movement of the 1980s. But this time solidarity can take on a wider and more diverse scope. It has arisen from basic emergency relief needs.
 
Brooklyn Rivera, a leader of the Miskitu indigenous party Yatama and FSLN-Convergence member of the National Assembly, recently announced that a hemispheric indigenous conference will be held in Bilwi to coordinate grassroots indigenous aid to the Miskitu and Mayagna people, whose communities took the brunt of Hurricane Felix.

Some people believe that God, or Mother Nature, or the spirits, are taking revenge on Nicaragua. Still others say it�s all about global warning. They are convinced that human agency is the main cause of the disasters that have tormented our homeland now for almost eight weeks.

Our country is steeped in Christian and other myths and mysticism. In that cultural matrix, the notion of Divine Punishment is deeply rooted. One of our major novelists, former Vice-President Sergio Ram�rez, chose that theme as the title for his 1988 novel � Castigo Divino.

Diabolical or divine, the catastrophe facing the country is sheer pain and agony. The incessant torment renders people vulnerable to irrational notions about crime and punishment, and to irrational, obscurantist movements of both a religious and political stripe that impede local people from acting to counter injustices and to solve their own problems.

At such times it is instructive to heed the example of great fighters and leaders of previous battles against human misery and injustice. In his last letter to his children, Che Guevara advised them: �Above all, try always to be able to feel deeply any injustice committed against any person in any part of the world. It is the most beautiful quality of a revolutionary.� 

We can all discover that quality in ourselves: It's called solidarity, solidariti, solidaridad, SOL!

[Phil Stuart Cournoyer is a Canadian-born Nicaraguan citizen and longtime member of the Frente Sandinista de Liberacion Nacional (FSLN). In the early 1960s, he was a leader of the Canadian movement in solidarity with the Cuban Revolution. He was a leader of Canadian solidarity with the Nicaraguan Sandinista revolution during the late 70s and 80s. In Nicaragua, he worked as a translator for the FSLN newspaper Barricada and as Editor of URACCAN UPDATE, an English-language news bulletin of the University of the Autonomous Regions of the Nicaraguan Caribbean Coast (URACCAN).]

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