A mouse exploring a grocery store for something to feed on, after it was closed for the night, managed to climb up a drum of local wine and, unable to keep his balance, fell inside. He floated in the drum, consuming plenty of wine – ‘tharra’ as they call it, till he was discovered by the store owner next morning and thrown out on the street. Waking up to the cold breeze, the drunken mouse struggled to stand on his hind feet, shook off the wine he was dripping in, looked around and roared in as much a thunderous voice as a mouse can muster: “Where did the cat run away?” 

Karzai "getting tough"

One heard similar roars coming out of Kabul during the last few weeks. News stories coming out of Kabul stated that that President Hamid Karzai was acting tough with his American masters and NATO benefactors. He threatened to forsake them if they pressed him too hard for ensuring transparency in the upcoming parliamentary elections and eradicating corruption. Karzai also told Afghan parliamentarians that he might join the Taliban. He went on to say that America would be perceived as an invader if it interfered in the internal affairs of Afghanistan. Without citing the U.S. directly, Karzai accused the United Nations and the international media of conspiring against him. He said the daily attacks on his character by foreigners are intended to marginalize him, to make him "psychologically smaller and smaller,"

He went on to say, "They wanted to have a puppet government. They wanted a servant government," and accused the West of “orchestrating fraud in last year's presidential election”. Interesting claims indeed!

Karzai getting angry

Described by many as erratic behavior, some even attributing it to his recently alleged drug addiction, Karzai’s outbursts were his most stinging criticism to date of the West and the United Nations. But then he chose to make a conciliatory phone call to Secretary Clinton and visited Kandahar to help build public support for a crucial upcoming U.S. and NATO offensive.

The situation is amusing and disturbing at the same time, amusing for Karzai watchers and disturbing for the West - the US in particular.

Karzai losing it

Is it possible that good old Karzai is losing his memory? Why else would he believe the world to be unaware that the Americans were indeed the invaders of Afghanistan from day one? Why does he believe the world to be ignorant that he was picked out from obscurity in Quetta (Pakistan) and placed on the throne of Kabul by the Americans as caretaker of their interests? And why does he expect the world to be so naive as not to know that the Americans have taken all major Afghan government decisions all these years?

Karzai getting lectured

Karzai was apparently giving vent to his anger after the tense exchange during President Obama’s first visit to Kabul as Commander-in-Chief recently, in which Obama gave him a dressing down over his failure to put his act together on key issues that the US has been drawing his attention to for sometime and that included an effective mechanism for eradication of corruption and mismanagement, ensuring transparency in upcoming parliamentary elections by keeping foreign members on Electoral Complaints Commission that investigates fraud, and establishing guidelines on how to proceed with persuading insurgents to switch sides. Later, Obama made it clear in a television interview - and not for the first time - that he was displeased with Karzai's performance.

With billions of Western dollars going down Afghanistan’s black hole with not many signs of recovery, 100,000 foreign troops fighting a counterinsurgency campaign with another 30,000 new US troops reaching Afghanistan whose success depends on a credible Afghan partner and Karzai, the partner, making such a fool of himself, Obama had good reasons to lose his cool.

Perhaps Obama’s business-like attitude did not sit well with Karzai more because it is in contrast to President Bush’s attitude who, ignoring his failings after installing him as president eight years ago, kept him pampered by extending courtesies and making friendly phone calls.
 
Karzai the liability

Karzai presides over a government so inefficient and corrupt that Afghanistan ranks 179th on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, just ahead of last place - Somalia. As for his control over his own country, he has hardly been able to venture out of Kabul and is derided by his people as the ‘mayor of Kabul’.

The West and the UN are still smarting under their failure to prevent a massive vote fraud in the presidential election last August that was funded and supported by them, in which at least one-third of Karzai’s votes - more than a million, were found to be fake. This created an uproar. Karzai conceded there was massive fraud but instead of accepting responsibility, blamed it on foreigners – the UN, the international monitors and the foreign embassies in Kabul. Taking his blame game further he said the foreigners do not want the next parliamentary election, scheduled for September, to take place. "They also want the parliament to be like me, battered and wounded. They want me to be an illegitimate president. And they want the parliament to be illegitimate."

Karzai the thief

The US and NATO allies and the UN were concerned that with Karzai, having cheated his way to victory and with his legitimacy as democratically elected president called into question by most Afghans, this was not only going to tarnish their image as honest brokers but also create other serious problems. The Karzai administration that was already infamous as the Western puppet, inefficient and corrupt to the core, will now be perceived to be illegitimately in place with their connivance. At a time when the Americans were working on an exit strategy and were desperate to see the Kabul administration gradually assuming greater responsibility of managing its affairs, Karzai was fast becoming a liability, losing the confidence of the majority of Afghans and his Western sponsors.  

Karzai the deluded

 At one stage the US even decided to dump a Pashtun Karzai in favor of his main opponent Abdullah Abdullah, a candidate of the rival minority tribes of the North, after a newly appointed Electoral Complaints Commission tossed out enough Karzai votes to force a runoff, but was disappointed when Abdullah chose to withdraw, sensing that the Karzai controlled Election Commission had ensured more fraud prone voting procedures making a fair contest impossible.   

Besides his row with President Obama, the current low in Karzai–US relations seemingly results from the battle of wits between him and the US, as both of them are keen to protect their interests in the closing years of US presence in Afghanistan. Karzai is upset over the American decision to begin withdrawal in mid 2011 as this will deny him his safety umbrella. This will also likely push other local players to jockey for positions in the post-American Afghanistan. For some, and that includes Karzai, who have been much too close to Washington, it is time to move to the center to improve their acceptability among Afghans opposed to American occupation.

With his second presidential tenure in hand, he is apparently convinced that he might outlive the Americans in Kabul, but then he will have to survive on his own in a treacherous and vicious political environment that Afghanistan is. Karzai is, therefore, frantically laying ground for a strong support within the new parliament and is desperate to neutralize the threat from the mainstream Taliban groups to his authority by inducting them into a grand alliance. The US, on the other hand, would like to keep Karzai’s wings clipped by preventing him from gaining a majority in the new parliament by manipulating elections next fall. Obama would be more comfortable with Karzai on the leash rather than letting him run free – managing the country as he pleases.

Karzai, the U.S. and Reintegration of the Taliban

Although the Obama administration will eventually open dialogue with the mainstream Taliban leadership, for now it awaits the outcome of its recent initiatives aimed at winning the hearts and minds of the Afghans in the Taliban heartland that, it expects, will enable it to negotiate from a position of strength. Accordingly, the US has been advocating that a distinction between good and bad or moderate and hard liner Taliban be made and the Taliban foot soldiers be bribed with a promise for rehabilitation, so as to weaken the mainstream groups. Obama has been pressing Karzai to plan the reintegration of defecting Taliban foot soldiers into Afghan society.

Karzai understands that although he is a Pashtun like the Taliban, they reject him as an American stooge and his rule will be in jeopardy once an accord is reached between them and the Americans. He might be apprehensive that any effort on his part to subvert the loyalties of Taliban foot soldiers would draw the ire of their leadership and scuttle his chances of accommodation with them. He is, therefore, not too keen on pursuing this American strategy. Although bizarre, he has made no secret of his desire to himself negotiate with Mullah Omar to work out a power sharing formula that he thinks would confer legitimacy on his government by way of inclusion of all the players in Afghanistan. Mullah Omar has made it clear he does not want to deal with Karzai. And Karzai’s overtures to Mullah Omar make Obama angry because this runs counter to his strategy.   

Karzai, his rock and the hard place

Karzai’s recent utterances reflect frustration on his part and are a source of concern in Washington and in some quarters in Kabul. The White House called Karzai's allegations "simply untrue" and "troubling." There were even suggestions that his May 12 visit to Washington may run in trouble. But then President Obama thought the better of it and wrote to Karzai assuring him that a welcome awaits him in Washington. Abdullah Abdullah, Karzai’s electoral opponent, said in a news conference Friday that Karzai's behavior was "not normal" and criticized him for squandering U.S. support as the situation is becoming most dire.

At this critical juncture the US administration would like to see its partner in Kabul implementing its strategy, not undermining it. It had reluctantly agreed to work with him after his controversial re-election but seems to be stuck with him for lack of a workable alternative, at least for now. From its standpoint, Karzai is seen as biting the hand that has fed him for all these years. For a man who struggles for legitimacy, who is the prime target for the Taliban and whose position is so precarious that he cannot function on a day to day basis without American support, he is in no position to threaten, confront or defy the West, and he should be aware of this. This brinkmanship only compromises his position.

Hamid Karzai. The Later Years.

Read his bio and more analyses and essays by
Axis of Logic Columnist, Shahid R. Siddiqi

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