print:Behind the Ukraine crisis: a lesson for China

Context
On February 21, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, as independent states. Gao Cheng analyzes, in detail, the geopolitical game between the US, Russia, and the European countries in Ukraine over the past years, its deep-seated reasons, and elaborates on the implications of the Ukrainian crisis for China.

Key points

Behind the crisis in Ukraine is the historical conflict between the US and Russia in the post-Cold War period. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia tried to establish close relations with the West until the end of 2008.
The crisis in Ukraine was the trigger for the rapid deterioration of Russian-US relations. From the abandonment of the US commitment to "no eastern encroachment by NATO", to the US's support of pro-U.S. regimes in former Soviet countries, to political infiltration and color revolutions, through to the present Ukraine crisis, Russia's attitude toward the US changed from one of patience and mild resistance to a strong counterattack.
Russia cannot sit back and watch the West control its strategic buffer zone, as NATO's eastward expansion is a threat to its border security. In particular, Russia cannot allow the US to make Ukraine a military bridgehead to contain Russia.
The US has attempted to use Ukraine to keep Russia in check, create tensions between Russia and Europe, and successfully strengthen the security dependence of the EU countries on the United States. However, the US-European trust relationship has also weakened due to the decline of European power and status.
The US policy of containing China in the Asia-Pacific region and the policy of continued weakening of Russia in Europe go hand in hand.
The contradiction between Russia and China and the US-dominated international environment is one of the key foundations of strategic cooperation between Russia and China, and the crisis in Ukraine is only a further catalyst for promoting Russian-Chinese relations.
From a pragmatic perspective, Western sanctions may facilitate Russia's energy exports to Asia and could enable the strengthening of China-Russia cooperation and the expansion to a number of fields such as finance, high-speed railway construction, agriculture, military technology, and manufacturing.

Summary
According to Gao Cheng, the conflict in Ukraine will not prompt the United States to change its strategy to contain China. The US will try to prevent China and Japan from cooperating in Asia, while trying to prevent the European countries from aligning with Russia in Europe. Facing the pressure of the US-dominated international system, China and Russia will maintain and deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership for a longer period of time into the future. In a time of mutual suspicion between the major powers, and with regional integration hampered, China and Russia need to think about how to become a constructive force to change the established international order, which is unfavorable to them and emerging countries.

Gao Cheng (高程) is a researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

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