Spanish Influenza Helped End WWI. Can COVID-19 Do the Same with Conflicts Today?

The 1918 Spanish flu that sickened a third of the world’s population and helped put an end to World War I still exists in weaker, seasonal strains today. The novel coronavirus pandemic is no different, only worse. Some are therefore calling for a global ceasefire to fight a more formidable calamitous and deadly opponent. This is, at least, what UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres wants to do. Eleven nations are on board with more expected to follow. Meanwhile, armies are facing their own internal pandemics: disgruntled and mutinous troops and a lack of recruits.

No One Paid Attention
Based on clinical reports and genomic studies, scientists believe that the Spanish flu had been circulating within the armies of World War I for a long time, years before the pandemic of 1918-21. Like COVID-19, the virus mutated. It mainly targeted the western trenches, taking hold among those who had no immunity to it and were living in filthy, wet, cold conditions. It then erupted in faraway places like Kansas, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Sierra Leone, Africa. No one paid attention as thousands suddenly developed a fever and suffocated due to collapsed lungs.

Despite the more recent COVID-19’s early alarm bells coming out of China, most nations did not pay attention. Some were too hesitant to act or ill-prepared with dysfunctional healthcare or economic systems which favored profit over people. Others were either inundated with poor leadership or a destructive ideology: invincibility. The novel coronavirus is now expected to infect millions of lives worldwide and kill thousands of people. It’s also possible that virus will follow several waves and continue to reappear year after year as the Spanish influenza did.

Shall We Wake the Leaders?
In “Shall We Wake the President,” a history of disaster responses by U.S. presidents, Tevi Troy cites how U.S. president Woodrow Wilson ignored the 1918 Spanish influenza, allowing World War I to trump public health. The U.S. was not alone. Leaders in Britain, France and Germany had their own forms of censorship to maintain morale and prevent the spread of the pandemic. They refused to speak out publicly or privately about the epidemic. People died so fast that the coroner’s office could not keep up with the demand for death certificates.

Armies around the world suffered the same fate. Pandemic historian John M. Barry paints a horrid picture of lethally infected soldiers dying in droves in infected camps. It includes new recruits that were sent across the seas to fight. Sickbays were filled with hemorrhaging troops to the extent that the staff could do little more than carry away the dead. Waves of bodies were buried at sea. Some army doctors rebelled against their leaders, as did thousands of troops along the Western Front. Mutinies and the heavy toll of the pandemic helped bring an end to the war.

Spanish Influenza Redux?
Today, thousands of soldiers around the world are sick with COVID-19. Nuclear aircraft carriers have been evacuated and boot camps shut down. Angry sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt yelled profanities at President Donald Trump and acting Secretary of Navy Thomas Modly as he degraded their former captain who got fired for sending out a dire warning about the threat COVID-19 posed. The same has occurred elsewhere with units threatening to leave their ships or military bases to be with families. For them, betrayal starts at the top and the COVID-19 cover-up.

Military Times obtained one message from the Pentagon that said “posting negative comments” which put “senior leaders” in a bad light is counterproductive. A military gag-order directed troops to ask permission to post, to not criticize the president, and to stay out of “negative media spotlight.” Soldiers are not only blasting their leaders over mission obligations with the need to protect the health of personnel but recruiting stations remain closed, making it difficult to find healthy trainees. For now, some countries have had to divert funds away from war to fight the virus.

Unfit for Command
In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro suddenly found himself weakened and isolated by the military. The far-right leader had convened an emergency meeting to resolve a dispute with the Health Minister who had publicly opposed the president’s calls to loosen quarantine restrictions. Even top military officers in the government - who until now have neither publicly criticized nor defended Bolsonaro - jumped to the minister’s defense. They also scaled back operations in the Amazon and against Venezuela against Bolsonaro’s orders. Like World War I, medical doctors and surgeons around the world are rebelling against their superiors and questioning leaders.

These tensions illustrate the extent that some military officials are willing to go to challenge their commanders-in-chief. Other far-right leaders have experienced the same condition, generals and troops challenging and isolating their leaders and second-guessing their missions. In some cases, it includes scaling back military operations. In the face of the climbing figures and COVID-19 deaths, Jimena Blanco, head of Americas Risk Insights at Verisk, can see possible impeachments if not military coups or collapses.

Military Readiness, Stop-Loss and Low Morale
Most armies around the world recognize how coronavirus is already hurting military readiness. In addition to thousands of troops sickened with the virus, active-duty personnel must maintain social distancing. This not only impacts military training, but it restricts domestic and international troop deployments. There are also tremendous gaps between how enlisted personnel view COVID-19 and their commanders or political leaders, something that has led to tensions and refusals to train. This will likely lead to more unreadiness and future gaps.

Something else that is of grave concern for armies is the potential revival of the stop-loss policy, especially as the arrival of new troops disrupts its personnel pipeline. What this means is that soldiers may be stuck in deployment roles or theaters of combat for a long time. It also means that armies around the world are looking at retaining enlisted troops beyond their planned departure date, delay officers’ retirement and lengthen reserve troops’ active-duty service. This will clearly impact morale and a soldier’s ability to perform their duty.

International Crises Requires Global Cooperation
After World War I, Spanish influenza forced national leaders and military generals to reconsider the costs of war. This was one reason the U.S. convened the Washington Naval Conference in 1921, a disarmament conference attended by Japan, China, France, Britain, and several others. It was soon followed by the Four-Power Treaty, Five-Power Treaty, and the Nine-power Treaty. The treaties were established to preserve peace during the 1920s so that nations ravaged by the Great War and Spanish influenza could rebuild and replenish their populations.

Guterres’s push for global cooperation and an end to conflicts is getting some interest beyond the UN and other supranational organizations. Pope Francis has already spoken in favor of this new cooperation, as have other church leaders. The UN is looking for either the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, or China - all engaged in foreign conflicts - to join with other signatories: South Sudan, Sudan, Ukraine, Yemen, Libya, Columbia, Myanmar, Syria, and the Philippines. It remains to be seen if any of these five will remember the costs of the 1918 Spanish influenza.

Unacceptable
The nations that have already signed-off on Guterres’s global cooperation plan are the countries most vulnerable to COVID-19. For them, it is unacceptable that years of foreign military interventions have left them least prepared for an outbreak with little medical infrastructure. If the leaders mentioned above that are responsible for these conflicts won’t agree to a ceasefire, Guterres hopes their citizens will. This includes making them accountable for misplaced priorities, such as funding foreign wars instead of their own healthcare needs and epidemic research.

Something else that is unacceptable is for a healthy baby, a 17-year-old teen, or a forty-six-year-old or even 60-year-old adult to develop a sudden fever one day and die just a few days later. To prevent the next big COVID-19 pandemi - and there will be more - Guterres wants people to make sure their leaders make epidemic awareness one of the top priorities. This includes prevention, detection, and responding to the threats. Corporations and businesses should ask if they have a strategy to keep their business in business through a global pandemic and the staff safe.

Preventing War and the Next Pandemic
Along with readiness, Guterres hopes to see greater opportunities for more scientists to teach or study subjects having to do with epidemic prevention and response. Healthcare professionals should be fully informed and well-equipped, able to provide patients with reliable sources of information and to thoughtfully separate false claims from real ones. The health of family and friends and the health of future generations is just as important. This starts with good personal hygiene, immunization, clean water, safe food, and healthy local environments.

Most importantly is the need for countries to end their dependency on foreign conflicts and make their people a national security priority. Many know how to do this. But time and time again, poor leadership and human failings - various mixtures of fear, pride, hubris, denial, complacency, and financial self-interest - have created, worsened, or delayed the response to wars. The same is true of pandemics, like COVID-19. Guterres says it is time to work towards global cooperation, to rebuild one’s own war-torn nation instead of destroying and rebuilding someone else's.

The same can be said of remanufacturing plagues through the carnages of wars.

[Note: Pandemics can also provide an opening for imperial powers to attack certain countries. The U.S. has increased its aggressive actions and ongoing wars against both Iran and Venezuela. The same is true of weaker nations challenging stronger ones. North Korea just announced that discussions with the U.S. over its nuclear capabilities are “off the table.” As noted, some terrorist-oriented individuals and organizations have already launched attacks against sponsors of state terrorism. - dd]

Dallas Darling is the author of Politics 501: An A-Z Reading on Conscientious Political Thought and Action, Some Nations Above God: 52 Weekly Reflections On Modern-Day Imperialism, Militarism, And Consumerism in the Context of John’s Apocalyptic Vision, and The Other Side Of Christianity: Reflections on Faith, Politics, Spirituality, History, and Peace. He is a correspondent for www.WN.com. You can read more of Dallas’ writings at www.beverlydarling.com and www.WN.com/dallasdarling.