Fifty years into what has
become known as the Space Age, the condition of space operations has
changed dramatically. Today more than 50 nations own satellites and
commercial operators own even more. There are now nearly 1,000 active
satellites orbiting the planet, carrying out critical roles in
telecommunications, navigation, banking, science, and other civilian
and military operations.
Despite
the obvious importance of satellite operations the space above Earth
has come to resemble what space security expert Laura Grego calls the
Wild West. Increasing numbers of satellites are entering the region yet
there are few restrictions on their behavior, increasing the risk of
accidents and the possibility of misunderstanding that could lead to
conflicts on the ground.
Some
recent event drive home how the current chaotic conditions are
contributing to the danger. For example, In 2007 China intentionally
destroyed one of it aging weather satellites with an anti-satelllite
(ASAT) weapon, adding more than 100,000 pieces of space debris to the
already huge and dangerous amount threatening objects in
space. Although China, among other countries, has called for discussing
a legal framework for space conduct, so far the US has been unwilling
to join them. In the absence of any law, the Chinese ASAT action was
technically legal.
A
year after the Chinese ASAT attack on its own satellite, the US used a
sea-level missile defense interceptor to destroy one of its own failed
satellites, USA 193. This incident showed how missile defense systems
could also be used as ASATs Restrictions on missile defense systems
which were ended when the US withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile
Treaty in 2001. Fortunately, USA 193 was at a low altitude, so that
most of the debris created fell out of orbit within a few days.
Although
space agencies around the world have been advocating procedures to
minimize increases in space debris, the Chinese ASAT attack illustrate
how unsuccessful this has been. Information presented at the European
Air and Space Conference held last year in Manchester, UK, stresses the
point. As reported in New Scientist a “burgeoning blizzard of space
debris is going to have a major impact on the future economics of space
flight.” Specifically, the number of pieces of space debris has risen
by 40 percent in the past four years alone.
Some
of the junk polluting space is large enough to do catastrophic damage
when it collides. The list includes defunct satellites, discarded
rockets, even nuclear-rocket cores. In one typical collision, an
Iridium commercial satellite weighing more than 1,200 pounds ran into a non- functioning Russian satellite weighing nearly a ton, the impact
producing two massive debris clouds. In a second collision, French spy
satellite Cerise was sent tumbling when the boom that stabilizes it was
vaporized in a collision with a ten-year-old chunk of an Ariane rocket.
The boom kept the satellite stable, so in its absence Cerise, which has
moved out of its orbit, is now functioning like a ship without a
rudder.
The
US Space Command tracks objects larger than 10 centimeters across, but
much smaller objects can do extreme damage. Because relative speeds are
so high, a collision with even a small piece of debris could incpatate
or destroy a satellite or space vehicle. And small pieces are abundant.
Hundreds of thousands of small spheres of liquid metal coolant have
leaked from nuclear reator cores. Paint chips, known to cause damage,
are also abundant.
When
the space shuttle Columbia touched down at the Kennedy Space Center,
none of the crew realized how close they had come to disaster. During
its mission, the door of the shuttle’s bay was hit by a projectile that
made a crater almost 2 centimeters across and 6 millimeters deep. At
the bottom of the crater lay a lump of fused metals including silver,
lead, and tin. NASA investigators concluded that Columbia was hit by a
piece of electronic circuit board. The fragment almost certainly came
from a satellite or rocket that had itself been damaged. Had the cargo
doors not been partially closed, the fragment would have hit oxygen
tanks in the shuttle hold, causing enormous damage to the vehicle and
perhaps threatening the safety of crew members.
These
chaotic conditions in the space above Earth are a clear threat to the
many important and peaceful uses of satellites in that region. Because
the US possesses more satellites than any other nation it has the most
to lose from deployment of weapons that can destroy satellites and
create more dangerous debris. Conversely, it is the country that could
benefit most from a comprehensive multilateral space security plan.
This would be a win-win situation as other other countries achieve
access to space without fear of missile attack and with reduction of
costly accidents.
The
US hasn’t taken the wise course that would both benefit it and other
nations. Instead its policy in the past decade has focused on securing
space by unilateral and military means. The Bush administration had
proposed space-based missile defense research and development that
would, for the first time, place dedicated weapons in orbit.
Fortunately, Congress repeatedly refused to fund this proposal. And
although the US has certainly not fostered space cooperation with the
international community in general, it has taken an especially strong
stance against China, blocking Chinese access to all US space
technology.
The
Obama administration seems to understand that space policy during the
past decade, like foreign policy in general, has made the US more and
more unpopular among other nations, not to mention being contrary to
its own best interests. The president will re-shape space policy, as
far as the Congress will let him.
There
are some immediate opportunities for a change in direction. The
administration is in the process of rewriting the National Space
Policy, which guides US space activities across all sectors; that is,
civil, commercial, government, and military. And a Space Posture
Review. to be completed by the end of this year, will establish
priorities for the national security uses of space.
One
of those priorities should be a pledge not to station weapons in space.
Russia made such a pledge in 2004 and is currently the only nation to
have done so. If the US followed suit it would be a strong inducement
to get other space powers to follow.
China
might be one of them. President Obama seems to understand the
importance of China in achieving space security, and he has worked
toward that goal. In a joint statement issued with President Hu Jintao
in November, 2009, President Obama said “The two countries have common
interests in promoting the peaceful uses of outer space and agree to
take steps to enhance security in outer space.”
Of
course this still leaves the threat of collisions with space debris.
But once the weapons threat has been eliminated and cooperation among
space-faring nations has been established, that problem can be
addressed and reduced, although not completely solved.
Toward Freedom