President Putin's popularity in the US (Updated) | Media Critiques |Axisoflogic.com

Retraction: We are grateful to John Spritzler, a longtime friend of Axis of Logic who holds a doctoral degree in biostatistics and has worked as a professional biostatistician for 20 years for informing us of an error in our analysis related to sampling error and sample size. Based on John's contribution, we have retracted the related paragraph. However, our conclusions about CNN's report remain unscathed.

- Les Blough, Editor
Axis of Logic

President Vladimir Putin to the Russian Federation on March 18:

“They are constantly trying to drive us into a corner because we have an independent position, because we maintain it and because we tell it like it is and don’t engage in hypocrisy. But there is a limit to everything. And with Ukraine, our Western partners have crossed the line, playing the bear and acting irresponsibly and unprofessionally.”

“Today, it is imperative to end this hysteria, to refute the rhetoric of the Cold War and to accept the obvious fact: Russia is an independent, active participant in international affairs. Like other countries, it has its own national interests that need to be taken into account and respected.”

We can't help but wonder what people in the US population think about Russia and President Putin relative to events in Ukraine and Crimea in recent weeks with the Crimean people voting overwhelmingly (by referendum) to join the Russian Federation and President Putin's 95 percent approval rating from the Russian people.

CNN is reporting[1] that according to their own poll, "69% of Americans say they see Russia as threat to the U.S." Based on this CNN poll, this represents 25 point increase since 2012 and "the highest number on that question since the break-up of the Soviet Union." According to CNN's Polling Director, Keating Holland, only 31 percent do not see Russia as a threat and "Americans place Russia in the same ballpark as North Korea (71%) and Iran (70%)" in their view of threats against their country and "Only 11% of those questioned say they have a positive view of Putin, with 68% saying they see him in a negative way."

Keating Holland draws a strong conclusion from his poll:

"The numbers are pretty clear on the Russian president. Americans really don't like Vladimir Putin, whose unfavorable rating has jumped 14 points since early February and ...

"And the poll indicates that the vast majority of the public says Moscow's actions in neighboring Ukraine break international law, and half of those questioned say a new Cold War between the U.S. and Russia is likely."

At the end of their report, CNN describes their polling method,

"The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International from Friday through Sunday, with 801 adults nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

Our questions about the CNN poll.

Were there only two questions or were there more? No way to know.

Who did they call? Did CNN use a "stratified random sample" which is the standard for polls and surveys in social science. For example, do the 801 people they spoke to represent a cross-section of the population based on age groups, genders, education, political party affiliations, financial status and income levels, urban and rural residencies, race and ethnicity?
How did CNN select the people they called? They don't tell us. Questions can be asked in different ways, with a neutral tone, a voice that suggests the 'correct' answer or one that is emotionally loaded.
What time of day and what day(s) of the week were the calls made? CNN says, "Friday through Sunday." This is important. With the growing number of working women, often there is nobody home during the day using the telephone method, the pollsters are left to call people between 6-9 p.m. when people are having dinner or watching a favorite TV program and not much in the mood to answer questions to a stranger.
How were the questions actually posed by the unknown persons making the calls? For example, CNN's question could be interpreted as, "You do see what a threat Russia is to the United States, don't you?"
In social science, the influence the interviewer has over the subject is called "the halo effect." Who actually made the calls and did they influence the people they called?

Then there is content of their survey questions to be considered. CNN only referred to two questions they reportedly asked their subjects. We have no way of knowing if they asked others in addition to:

Do you see Russia as a threat to the United States?

Is your view of the Russian threat similar to your view of the North Korean and Iranian threat?

Duke University's Initiative on Survey Technology provides various standards for valid survey design. They say, "Researchers should avoid asking questions that make assumptions that may not be true" and give the following example of a biased question: "Did the US make a mistake in deciding to defend Kuwait?"[3] Both questions asked by CNN are like this - containing the answers within the questions themselves. They could just as well ask for examples, "Do you see Russia as a friend to the United States" or "Do you see the United States and Russia as threats to each other?" Finally, good survey questions allow for the person to elaborate and ask the interviewer for clarification.

So let's see, suppose we came up with a survey of our own with a few of the questions resembling CNN's methods. We wonder how people in the US would answer:

Do you think the people of Crimea should have the right to leave Ukraine if they want to?
If the people of Crimea choose to leave Ukraine, do they have the right to join someone else if they want to?
If Québec decides to withdraw from Canada (and there's a fair chance they will), should the US intervene?
Would you respect a president who takes a strong stand for democracy?
Would you respect a leader who puts your interests above those of a foreign country?
Would you like to have a president who defends your rights as citizens, your economic interests and invests resources to provide education, health care, housing and build the infrastructure of your country?
Would you support a national leader who shows courage and resolve to protect the United States democratically without going to war with other countries?
Can you name any country that doesn't see the US government as a threat to them?
Do you fear your own government, its police and military inside the country?
Would you like to have a president like Vladimir Putin in the United States?

Perhaps we could get a few Axis of Logic readers to make random telephone calls to 801 households in the United States?

After reporting such impressive results of their poll/survey, CNN goes on to condemn President Putin for "snap military exercises" on the border of neighboring Ukraine and reminding their TV viewers and website readers that "U.S. and European leaders, have warned that the vote is illegitimate." They continue by referring to the illegal regime that overthrew Ukraine's democratically-elected president, "Ukraine's interim government in Kiev." Doesn't this sound a bit like the "interim governments" the US and EU funded, armed and set up in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria?

CNN continues with all but outright praise for the U.S. Senate's threat to "punish" Russians in various ways. One of CNN's "tells" (a poker game term) is their frequent use of the pronoun "we" when referring to their news organization and the US government.

We have identified six underlying messages in the CNN report which are directed at people in the U.S. and the world.

The first is an appeal to the "herd mentality" by telling readers that about 70 percent of their peers view Russia to be a threat. It's like the satirical message we once saw scribbled on a public toilet stall, "Eat shit, a hundred million flies can't be wrong!"

A second message is to cause fear, a well known method of mind control for bringing people into submission. In this case it is the fear of "a new cold war" and even, "the possibility of nuclear war with Russia."

Third, they malign Russia by comparing it to other countries they've demonized, specifically, the Soviet Union, Iran and North Korea.

Fourth, they reinforce the false assertion that President Putin invaded Crimea and that he has broken "international law." He did not invade Crimea; rather, the Crimean Parliament and 97 percent of the Crimean people decided to declare independence from Ukraine and voted to join the Russian Federation. Moreover, the US never joined the ICC, refuse to subject themselves to "international law" and only use it as a tool to be applied to their adversaries.

Fifth, they miraculously transform the mob that overthrew the democratically-elected government in Kiev into a legitimate government.

Finally, CNN reaffirms that the US has the right to "punish" with sanctions, seizure of Russian foreign assets or possible military action, any sovereign nation that does not submit to the wannabe global corporate empire.

Conclusion

The CNN survey is invalid and the results are spurious. What do people in the US really think about Russia and President Putin? Regarding their feelings about Russia, we suspect that they want a new system of government and a more just society in the US. If they knew anything about Russian society beyond the disinformation of the corporate media, they might favor it! We also have a suspicion that truth be told, many people in the US are longing for a leader to appear in the United States with the integrity, intelligence and courage of President Vladimir Putin. The US people have been suppressed, repressed and depressed in despair for so long, they might give such a leader a 95 percent approval rating like the Russian people have given President Putin.

- Axis of Logic Editors

[1] CNN Poll: Most see Russia as a threat to U.S. survey by CNN's Polling Director, Keating Holland , CNN Political Unit ("Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report")

[2] The Survey System

[3] Initiative on Survey Technology, Duke University