Donald Trump stands to gain nothing from befriending Ukraine and could
lose a valuable chance at better relations and strategic partnership
with Russia in the process.
In many ways, Donbass will be Donald Trump’s first big test in foreign
policy. It will be his chance to show pragmatism over dogma and
moreover, to demonstrate his willingness to see the bigger picture in
respect of potential good relations with Russia vis-à-vis loyalty to a
fascist regime in Kiev which presents opportunities for no one and
economic strain for anyone who puts money into the a regime that
represents the second worst sovereign investment after Somalia.
For better or worse, because of the massive US presence in
the Middle East, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and both Iran and Saudi Arabia’s
relationship to each of the aforementioned conflicts, is of importance
to the US. The US will not be able to exculpate herself from the Middle
East (assuming she’ll ever want to do) without dealing with each of
these issues head on.
The conflict in Donbass, by contrast, does not impact
America’s medium or long term interests in any meaningful way. It is
merely the inevitable historic outgrowth of a centuries-old regional
conflict between Russia and powerful East European states, primarily the
Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and in more recent centuries, Austria
and Germany. Today it is the German-dominated EU wrestling for influence
in Russia’s borderlands. That being said the weak state of the EU means
Brussels could barely win a wrestling match with a wet sack.
Where the US does stand to gain money and influence by her
nefarious activities in the Arab world, there is little opportunity in
any part of Ukraine as presently constituted, for the US. As Donald
Trump accurately stated during the campaign, Eastern Europe as a whole
is nothing but a money drain for America with little coming as a result
of the investment. Any foreign policy realist could realize that.
Russia has no interest in any East European EU member state
beyond issuing correct proclamations stating Moscow’s concern for the
human rights of ethnic Russians in Latvia and Estonia.
The Donbass conflict is one with historic antecedents that
long predate the existence of the United States. By contrast, the major
conflicts in the Middle East are a result of both the ill thought out
Sykes-Picot agreement and subsequent issues of post-mandate and
post-colonial realities among new Arab nation states. In other words,
these are 20th-century conflicts which continue to burn into the 21st.
Because of this, walking away from the Donbass conflict and
the whole question of ‘Ukraine’ with clean hands, will be the ultimate
test for Donald Trump’s credentials as a foreign policy realist.
Since 1991, Ukraine has been ruled by either semi-competent
but ultimately corrupt Presidents (Kravchuk and Kuchma), corrupt leaders
compromised by their own side (Yushchenko), corrupt leaders compromised
by their own inadequacy (Yanukovych) and then, of course, one has the
current leaders of the fascist regime.
Ask any Russian or American leader from the 1990s or 2000s
how difficult it is to get anything resembling the truth out of these
people and soon one realises that Ukraine is less the ‘bread basket of
Europe’ and more like a cold weather Somalia, a perpetual basket case
governed by a combination of out of touch fools and dangerous
There are however signs of hope
that Trump will exculpate America from the ordeal. The official
statement on renewed fascist aggression in Donbass spoke of the need for
America and Russia to act as the responsible powers bringing a halt to
hostilities. Reports that Trump’s phone call with Poroshenko was frosty
at best would appear to back this up.
If Donald Trump can wash his hands of the mess Obama
created, it would be a big step in proving to the entire world including
Iran and China, that Trump is serious rather than frivolous, even when
he and his associates get specifics wrong, specifics such as Iran being
the number one exporter of terrorism or the idea that somehow the South
China Sea disputes can be solved by aggressive manoeuvres against
Ultimately, the state of Ukraine will fragment under the
weight of historical inevitability. The current borders are totally
inconsistent with realities on the ground as well as historical realities.
A wise American government will allow this to happen without prolonging
the misery that is Ukraine. Russia as the rightful steward of much of
current Ukrainian land, ought to play a constructive role in the process
rather than deny historical realities.
Also see: Trump administration fails to back Ukraine
Quote: "In telephone conversation US President Trump fails to give strong
support to Ukrainian President Poroshenko, as other US officials also
signal desire by US to put Ukraine crisis behind it in order to focus on
detente with Russia and war against Jihadi terrorism and ISIS."
Source: The Duran