The 21st Century Won’t Be The American Century-And It’s About To Get Worse

Since the shock of the Sept. 11 terror attacks and slide into the military haze of Afghanistan and Iraq, including Libya, Syria, and Yemen, there’s been a growing sense of anxiety among military and political leaders that the 21st century won’t be the American Century. In a detailed 2012 report, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), which is Washington’s supreme analytic body, moreover warned: “By 2030, no country…will be a hegemonic power…largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750.”(1)

But then even the universal laws of nature reflect how empires, like the U.S., experience the blessings of rising only to be followed by the curses of falling. Indeed, resistance to such hegemonic powers is always an obligation, perhaps even necessary. Consequently, it’s no wonder that NIC added this to their assessment: "Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based on GDP, population size, military spending, and technological investment.”

History Is Back With A Vengeance
The vision that Americans once had of ruling the world is surely suffering. So too is its distinctive mix of cultural attractions that had practically governed the world for the last fifty years outside of the Iron Curtain. Neither was the implosion of the Soviet Union in the 1990’s the “end of history” as many claimed. History is back with a vengeance, and the imposition of making American-style democracy “the final form of human government” isn’t welcomed. In fact, the imperial hunter has become the hunted.

A new great power conflict between Washington and Beijing and Europe has emerged. It will not only determine the course of a still young twenty-first century, but the NIC thinks China’s ascendancy is so certain that it alone will have the largest economy, surpassing that of the U.S. before 2030. To add fuel to America’s decline, China is asserting itself economically and militarily in Africa, Latin America, the South China Sea, Southwest Asia, and, of course, the U.S. Meanwhile, the West can still be the West without the U.S.

Many Unknown Unknowns
There are countless unforeseen factors that will determine just how kind the 21st century will be to the U.S. To be sure, a number of powerful new forces or missteps can suddenly change the trajectory of just how fast the U.S. declines. For instance, there’s Iran, Venezuela, and the loss of important allies over trade wars. A reset with New Russia will only add to the suspense. So too will America’s ongoing and costly wars and its nation building, nation building at the expense of its own infrastructures and supply chains.

Indeed, rising income and infrastructural inequalities have given rise to failed states and, in some cases, the collapse of cities. They’ve also caused political polarization and fierce sectionalism. Together with a president who’s fixated on increased military spending and “destroying everything Obama,” not to mention under investigation for possibly helping to rig the last election, it’s unlikely that more serious problems will be addressed-like the nation’s debt or the corporate and generational fleecing of workers and youth.

How Do You Spell Collapse?
It might even spell collapse. To be sure, what the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was to the 20th century, the collapse of the United States will be to the 21st century. Given the rise in corruption and that many Americans no longer believe in the American Dream, it can also happen here-much sooner than one thinks. This goes for its continued marches of folly that tries to govern the world through covert manipulation, unilateralism and raw force, and military and economic aid with-sacrificial austerity measures attached.

Whether by slow erosion or violent eruption, the 21st century will be transformative for the U.S. It will also determine what happens to America in the 22nd century, or if it even still exists. Either way, the U.S. can only blame itself for its inability to adapt and fund a new century of learning, innovation, scientific research, or building supply chains with other nations instead of battling them for hegemonic control. It can only blame itself as well for the spirit of demoralization and anger that’s now sweeping across the country.

Even The Sun Sets On The Earth
Viewed historically, the question is not whether the U.S. will lose its unchallenged global power, but just how fast and wrenching the decline will be. This too was verified by NIC. They cited the main cause for the decline of the U.S.’s economic and military strength was due to “the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way-roughly from West to East…without precedent in modern history.”(2) In the meantime, others simply hope for a shared new world order with China, Europe, and Russia at best.

Again, every empire, regardless of how powerful or far-reaching, has always declined and eventually collapsed. The U.S. is no exception to this rule, nor should it be. Even the Sun sets on the Earth.

Dallas Darling is the author of Politics 501: An A-Z Reading on Conscientious Political Thought and Action, Some Nations Above God: 52 Weekly Reflections On Modern-Day Imperialism, Militarism, And Consumerism in the Context of John’s Apocalyptic Vision, and The Other Side Of Christianity: Reflections on Faith, Politics, Spirituality, History, and Peace. He is a correspondent for www.WN.com. You can read more of Dallas’ writings at www.beverlydarling.com and www.WN.com/dallasdarling.

(1) McCoy, Alfred W. In The Shadows Of The American Century: The Rise and Decline of US Global Power. Chicago, Illinois: Haymarket Books., p. 23.
(2) Ibid., p. 228.