Brexit and the Road to Corbyn? | England (UK) |Axisoflogic.com

Despite recent assurances by ex-CIA chief and current US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, to Zionist groups in New York that the US will “push back” against Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, there remains a great fear among the British establishment that Corbyn, the first socialistic leader since the 1970s, will come to power and take a tiny fraction of the establishment’s wealth and power in order to raise Britain’s living standards to the level of most Western European states. The success of a Corbyn electoral campaign depends on how Brexit is handled.

NO BREXIT?
But how can Brexit happen at all? The Tories have boxed themselves into a tight corner. Parliament (MPs across all parties) will not agree to any withdrawal agreement with the EU; at least with the current crop of MPs in Parliament. Changing the crop means a general election, which the Tories want to avoid because they know they’ll lose. Theresa May called the snap election in 2017 because the Tories seriously underestimated the level of support across the country for Corbyn, whose Labour party robbed the Tories of their majority. The Tories were hoping to get enough Theresa May loyalists into Parliament to ram through her hated Brexit deal. It backfired spectacularly.

Today, any agreement other than a no deal won’t be right-wing enough for the Brextremist MPs (e.g., Jacob Rees-Mogg, Steve Baker). The Remainer MPs (e.g., Yvette Cooper, Ken Clarke) won’t agree either, because any deal won’t be pro-EU enough for them. The EU can’t and won’t renegotiate a new deal with a May successor by October 31st (the latest Brexit date), so that means a long extension (which the EU will grant, according to European Council President, Donald Tusk. They don’t want Britain to leave).

Either way, there’s the issue of Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland, sadly for the Irish republicans, is part of the UK. The Republic of Ireland is not part of the UK. It freed itself from British control in the early-20th century and is a sovereign nation. It is also part of the EU. The Good Friday Agreement, which ended the civil war in Northern Ireland (the UK), guarantees Northern Ireland (UK) an open border with the Republic of Ireland. This is something that Brexit would prevent because freedom of movement ends for the given state (i.e., the UK), once it withdraws membership. So, this means that Northern Ireland gets special treatment as compared to the rest of the UK. The hard-right Democratic Unionist Party in the North (which is propping up the Tory government) won’t agree to this because they will see it as a betrayal of British sovereignty, i.e., carving out Northern Ireland and de facto keeping it in the EU; at least on the border issue, as the DUP sees it. There’s simply no way to rewrite the Good Friday Agreement.

WHERE TO TURN?
So, it’s stalemate. There’s no way that enough MPs in Parliament will allow a Brextremist to prorogue Parliament and leave the EU with no deal. (The only way that could happen is if the Prime Minister declares a national emergency under the Civil Contingencies Act or similar, but no one even raises this as a possibility.) There are even some Remain Tories (Chancellor Philip Hammond, ex-Attorney-General Dominic Grieve, and others,) who have said that they’d be willing to let the hated opposition (Corbyn’s Labour party) trigger a vote of no confidence in the government--and thus bring a general election--rather than allow their Brextremist Tory colleagues to leave the EU without a deal.

In 2022, the UK has to have a general election by law. So, as there’s no way around this, the soft-Brexit Tories are hoping to delay and delay, extend and extend the Brexit date until there’s a general election, by which time they hope that something bad will have happened to Corbyn’s Labour party and that the Tories will win enough seats in Parliament to get a majority to pass into law whichever Brexit deal the executive preferes. The hard-Brexiteers are hoping to get one of their own (e.g., Dominic Raab or Boris Johnson) to become Prime Minister in the naïve hope that they’ll be able to realise a no-deal scenario.

WILL MAY ACTUALLY GO?
But, crucially, Theresa May has said that although she resigned as leader of the Tory party, she did not resign as Prime Minister. This leaves the UK in limbo: i.e., with a partyless Prime Minister. May’s goal is to prevent a Brextremist like Boris Johnson from coming to power. But the grassroots Tories (most of whom are hardcore Brexiteers) won’t allow May to do that. But how will they stop her, given that she’s no longer leading their party and is a Prime Minister in limbo? The only way is for the Brextremists to allow Corbyn to trigger a vote of no confidence in the government as a proxy to get rid of May. But the question is, dare they risk bringing Corbyn to power or are they confident that the new Brexit Party will win enough seats in Parliament to help their no-deal agenda?

So, in a nutshell: If a Brextremist replaces May, the Remainers will allow Corbyn to trigger a general election to avoid a no-deal. If May stays on indefinitely to avoid a Brextremist coming to power, the Brextremists may allow Corbyn to trigger a general election in order to get rid of May. In either case, if there is a general election, the Brexit Party will split the Tory vote more than it will split the Labour vote; hopefully enough to bring Corbyn to power. Johnson as Prime Minister means potentially collapsing the government, triggering a general election and heightening Corbyn’s chances. Johnson’s only hope is that he brings to want a no-deal, while seeking an extension in reality in October.

Dr. T.J. Coles is a columnist with Axis of Logic and the author of several books, including Human Wrongs and Privatized Planet.

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