As he justified sending 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan at a cost of $30 billion a year, President Barack Obama's description Tuesday of the al Qaeda
"cancer" in that country left out one key fact: U.S. intelligence
officials have concluded there are only about 100 al Qaeda fighters in
the entire country.
A senior U.S. intelligence official told ABCNews.com the approximate
estimate of 100 al Qaeda members left in Afghanistan reflects the
conclusion of American intelligence agencies and the Defense Department. The relatively small number was part of the intelligence passed on to the White House as President Obama conducted his deliberations.
President Obama made only a vague reference to the size of the al Qaeda
presence in his speech at West Point, when he said, "al Qaeda has not
reemerged in Afghanistan in the same number as before 9/11, but they retain their safe havens along the border."
A spokesperson at the White House's National Security Council, Chris Hensman, said he could not comment on intelligence matters.
Obama's National Security Adviser, Gen. James Jones, put the number at "fewer than a hundred" in an October interview with CNN.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., referred to the number at a Senate Foreign
Relations Committee in October, saying "intelligence says about a
hundred al Qaeda in Afghanistan."
As the President acknowledged, al Qaeda now operates from
Pakistan where U.S. troops are prohibited from operating. "We're in
Afghanistan to prevent a cancer from once again spreading through that
country," he said.
Intelligence officials estimate there are several hundred al Qaeda fighters just across the border in Pakistan.
An Obama administration official said the additional troops were needed
in Afghanistan to "sandwich" al Qaeda between Pakistan and Afghanistan
and prevent them from re-establishing a safe haven in Afghanistan.
"Pakistan has been stepping up its efforts," the official said.
"So the real question is will Pakistan do enough," said former
White House counter-terrorism official Richard Clarke, an ABC News
consultant.
"What if they take all the money we given them but don't really follow through? What the strategy then?" said Clarke.
With 100,000 troops in Afghanistan at an estimated yearly cost
of $30 billion, it means that for every one al Qaeda fighter, the U.S.
will commit 1,000 troops and $300 million a year.
Other counter-terror analysts say the actual number of al Qaeda in
Afghanistan is less important than their ability to train others in the
Taliban and have ideological influence.
"A hundred 'no foolin' al Qaeda operatives operating in a safe haven
can do a hell of a lot of damage," said one former intelligence
official with significant past experience in the region.
At a Senate hearing, the former CIA Pakistan station chief, Bob Grenier, testified al Qaeda had already been defeated in Afghanistan.
"So in terms of 'in Afghanistan,'" asked Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.,
"they have been disrupted and dismantled and defeated. They're not in
Afghanistan, correct?"
"That's true," replied Grenier.
ABC News
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