National leaders and sleep-deprived negotiators thrashed out a text
late last night that could determine the balance of power in the world
and possibly the future of our species. The list below gives a
breakdown of the key points:
Temperature
"The increase in global temperature should be below two degrees."
This
will disappoint the 100-plus nations who wanted a lower maximum of
1.5C, including many small island states who fear that even at this
level their homes may be submerged.
Peak date for carbon emissions
"We
should co-operate in achieving the peaking of global and national
emissions as soon as possible, recognising that the time frame for
peaking will be longer in developing countries …"
This vague phrase is
a disappointment to those who want nations to set a date for emissions
to fall, but will please developing countries who want to put the
economy first.
Emissions cuts
"Parties
commit to implement individually or jointly the quantified economy-wide
emissions targets for 2020 as listed in appendix 1 before 1 February
2010."
This phrase commits developed nations to start work almost
immediately on reaching their mid-term targets. For the US, this is a
weak 14-17% reduction on 2005 levels; for the EU, a
still-to-be-determined goal of 20-30% on 1990 levels; for Japan, 25%
and Russia 15-25% on 1990 levels. The accord makes no mention of 2050
targets, which dropped out of the text over the course of the day.
Forests
"Substantial finance to prevent deforestation; adaptation, technology development and transfer and capacity."
This
is crucial because more than 15% of emissions are attributed to the
clearing of forests. Conservation groups are concerned that this phrase
lacks safeguards.
Money
"The collective
commitment by developed countries is to provide new and additional
resources amounting to $30bn for 2010-12 … Developed countries set a
goal of mobilising jointly $100bn a year by 2020 to address needs of
developing countries."
This is the cash that oils the deal. The
first section is a quick financial injection from rich nations to
support developing countries' efforts. Longer term, a far larger sum of
money will be committed to a Copenhagen Green Climate Fund. But the
agreement leaves open the questions of where the money will come from,
and how it will be used.
Key elements of earlier drafts dropped during yesterday's negotiations:
An attempt to replace Kyoto
"Affirming our firm resolve to adopt one or more legal instruments …"
This
preamble, killed off during the day, was the biggest obstacle for
negotiators. It left open the question of whether to continue a
twin-track process that maintains Kyoto, or whether to adopt a single
agreement. Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada are desperate to move to
a one-track approach, but developing nations refused to kill off the
protocol.
Deadline for a treaty
"… as soon as possible and no later than COP16 …"
This
appeared in the morning draft and disappeared during the day; it set a
December 2010 date for the conclusion of a legally binding treaty. The
final text drops this date, but small print suggests it will still be
next year.
The Guardian.co.uk