Countries bordering the Caspian sea need to sign supply contracts this
year for Europe's long-planned Nabucco gas pipeline if the project is
to go ahead, with a ‘big push' expected from the European Commission
and member states involved, one of the stakeholders told [EU Observer].
Eight years into the preparation phase of the EU's most ambitious
pipeline project, stakeholders are now increasingly nervous about
securing the necessary gas supplies from Caspian littoral countries to
make the investment worth while.
"We are basically sitting at the borders of Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan and waiting. We're in discussions, but we need now to pull
this together to get the supply commitments," Jeremy Ellis, head of
business development at German energy company RWE, one of the Nabucco
stakeholders told EUobserver in a phone interview.
The two countries, both of whom border the sea, have grown
increasingly wary of the actual construction of the pipeline, as the
years went by without the project coming to pass.
"The main hurdle now is giving Caspian producers the confidence that
Nabucco is coming, because it is a big decision for them, to start
committing these resources westwards," Mr Ellis said.
One argument in favour of the project, in the businessman's view, is
that Turkey has finally ratified a key agreement on transit conditions
for the pipeline, which was sealed last year in Ankara between the five
states involved: Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria.
More political backing, with a planned visit to the region by both
the European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and energy
commissioner Gunther Oettinger is also aimed at pushing things forward.
The commission earlier this month approved financial support to the tune of €200 million.
"We are going to see a lot more visibility and a big push in 2010
from the European Commission in helping us to pull this over the line.
Everything that's been requested from the supplier countries, we've
delivered. Now people need to make some decisions," he said.
Energy commissioner Oettinger however admitted that the EU aid may be used elsewhere if Nabucco does not go ahead this year.
The 3,300-kilometre-long pipeline would deliver 31 billion cubic
metres annually, mainly from Azerbaijan and neighbouring Turkmenistan,
with the possibility of including Iraqi and Egyptian gas at a later
stage.
The confidence problems in Caspian littoral countries towards the
European project are re-inforced by Russia's promotion of a rival
pipeline, South Stream, which would run on the seabed of the Black Sea
and redistribute the same Caspian gas via Russia.
Moscow is not the only competitor of the EU's central Asian energy
ambitions. At the end of last year, China also scored against Europe's
interests when it inaugurated a major new gas pipeline from
Turkmenistan, pumping 40 billion cubic metres a year.
However, the Nabucco people remain convinced that their project will bring Caspian littoral countries a better deal.
"It is a question of choice: Nabucco offers the cheapest
transportation route directly to Europe and the best value for their
gas," Mr Ellis said, while agreeing that economic rationale sometimes
yields to political decisions, especially in that region.
Russia not on board
Meanwhile, a Russian minister has strongly rejected the idea of his
country joining Nabucco, an idea floated by Gazprom's Italian partner
in the South Stream project, ENI.
"We are not discussing these issues at all," energy minister Sergei
Shmatko told reporters in Moscow. He added that South Stream was "more
competitive" than Nabucco, but maintained that they were not "rivals."
Russia has gas to fill the pipeline and has signed agreements with
transit countries for the onshore section of the link, Mr Shmatko said.
Austria, the proposed terminus country for South Stream's northern
branch, has yet to sign an agreement with Russia.
In the Nabucco camp, however, South Stream is still seen as "years
behind" the European project and costing at least twice the price of
the onshore pipeline.
EU Observer