By Arturo Rosales writes from Caracas. Axis of Logic
Editor's Note: Please note that the predictions reported by our columnist, Arturo Rosales, are being made by members of the opposition, and not by the author. Neither, Rosales nor Axis of Logic can predict what will take place in Venezuela on October 7. Hopefully, the democratic process will be followed as it has been in all elections and referenda since the Chavez administration took over 14 years ago. However, we and many Venezuelans think that this presidential election will be different than the last in 2006. In addition to what one feels "in the air" during the presidential campaigns, we are fully aware that the US is looking at: another Chavez Administration for the next 6 years; a revolution that is stronger than ever with the creation of CELAC and Venezuela's entrance into MercoSur; and the wars on Libya and Syria, ignited by bands of hired mercenaries and terrorists funded and armed by the US-Euro imperialists with the intention of creating civil war and ultimately neocolonization of those countries.
- Les Blough in Venezuela
Axis of Logic readers will know that the presidential election will be held in Venezuela on October 7th and that President Chavez looks increasingly likely to be reelected for a further six year term – probably with a landslide victory.
We will not go into the ins and outs of the inexact and sometimes biased process of the polls in Venezuela but suffice it to say that Bank of America Merrill Lynch, hardly an institution that supports Chavez’s socialist policies, has published a study by opposition Venezuelan economist Francisco Rodriguez stating that Chavez should win by a double digit majority.
In its desperation at facing a fourth crushing presidential election defeat since 1998, the Venezuelan opposition has started to let its mask if civility slide as it struggles to find tactics or strategy to defeat the Chavez candidacy. This has not been possible and the general disdainful even hateful attitude of the Venezuelan opposition (read bourgeoisie) towards the common people is finally coming to light as we near the end of the election campaign.
This hatred stems from the fact that the opposition has been unable to attract chavista votes to their camp and this is amply reflected in all vote intention polls which vary from a 10% advantage for Chavez up to a 27% advantage. Attacking and insulting Chavez will not serve them so now certain influential opposition figures have directed their ire towards the mass of the Venezuelan people who are in effect Chavez voters.
Two weeks ago opposition candidate; Capriles Radonski, called the Venezuelan masses “jalabolas” due to their loyalty towards President Chavez. “Jalabolas” means roughly translated “ass lickers” and is a clear sign of Capriles’ disdain for the poor voters who support Chavez.
The next incident of this type occurred late last week when a multitude came out in the Andean state of Merida to support a Chavez election rally. State media showed images of people stretching out to shake Chavez’s hand with the caption “Merida con Chavez”. – Merida with Chavez.
Shortly after this image appeared the ex director of Globovision. Alberto Federico Ravell, who runs an opposition web site called La Patilla published the same image on his Twitter feed but with a similar caption. He changed the caption to “Mierda con Chavez” which means “Shit with Chavez”.
In other words he considers Chavez supporters as “shit” which we all knew was his view anyway but desperation at losing yet again is bringing out the true colors and opinions of the ex bourgeois rulers on Venezuela, who are not only social racists but pure fascists at heart.
The third incident has to do with the Catholic Church. In an article penned for the weekly newspaper La Razon, the Catholic Archbishop of Merida, Baltazar Porras, wrote that the Venezuelan Social Missions should be abolished because, “we cannot turn people into parasites or make them dependent on the goodness of the State”. So now another leading opposition figure calls the millions of poor Venezuelan who have benefited from the Social Missions “parasites” since he knows that the overwhelming majority of them will vote for Chavez on October 7th.
You want to win an election and the going gets tough despite the unconditional support of the mass of private media in the country – TV, radio, press and internet – so what do you do? You call the voters you need “ass lickers”, “shit” and “parasites” as you wallow in a swamp of uncontrollable desperation and hatred.
It sometimes makes me and other people think that the opposition does not want to win the election but has some other plan up its sleeve. This is being commonly referred to as Plan “B” in the local Venezuelan media.
Plan “B”……or Plan “V” for Violence
One school of thought is that since the opposition, or in this case Capriles, has no chance of defeating Chavez democratically, then with the aid of US imperialists and Colombian paramilitaries, they will resort to other measures to destabilize the country with a view to overthrowing Chavez.
The latent violence in the opposition campaign has been characterized by assaults on reporters from the state media who cover Capriles’ election rallies. The constant barrage of negative information in the opposition controlled media about food shortages, water shortages, electricity blackouts, homicides, robberies, holes in the road and so on continues giving the impression that Venezuela is in a state of “pre civil war”. Unfortunately many middle class people swallow this propaganda hook, line and sinker and are psychological wrecks from the anguish this media barrage has caused.
This is all part of Plan “B” and is probably financed from the United States and money stolen from Venezuelan depositors in some of the banks that went under three years ago which had been ransacked by crooked bankers. The endgame of Plan “B” will be to refuse to recognize the opposition defeat at the polls and try to destabilize the country through street riots, demonstrations and disrupting the life of the peaceful majority.
This scenario is likely since no one from the opposition has stated unequivocally that they will accept the election results as given by the National Electoral Council (CNE) but that they will only accept “the will of the Venezuelan people”. There is a good chance that fraud will be screamed from the private media rooftops on October 7th with no evidence but as the necessary culmination of Plan “B”.
Moving on to Plan “V”
Despite all the suspicion surrounding opposition intentions on October 7th and 8th there are also signs that other factions are even more desperate.
Ricardo Koesling, a lawyer and infamous for leading the assault on the Cuban embassy on April 12th 2002, stated in a radio interview on Radio Caracas Radio (RCR) that if Capriles lost then they would confront the chavista hordes with “hails of bullets”.
The Primero Justicia candidate for the governorship of Aragua state, Richard Mardo, has stated that he and his people will take to the streets on October 7th if there is any evidence of fraud – by this he means if Capriles does not win. Mardo gained fame three months ago in La Victoria, Aragua State, when during a Capriles rally, he dragged a state media reporter to the ground by her hair to stop her asking uncomfortable questions to Capriles in the street. All this was on film even though Mardo denies touching the reporter.
The Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce (VENAMCHAM) has sent a circular to its members advising them to be prepared for events on or after October 7th. VENAMCHAM advises companies to set up a “situation room” with a crisis committee, stock up on food, walkie talkies, medical supplies, set up watch rotas, watch out for problems at ports and airports, organize changes of clothing for employees and so on – the document sounds as if they are preparing for a civil war.
Aponte – the Organization of Venezuelans in Exile is calling for people to demonstrate in the streets on October 7th – after Chavez wins since “it must be fraud”. This call from Elio Ap0nte comes from the safety of Miami but there are enough dissociated antichavistas in Eastern Caracas to go and occupy their local community square.
The right wing’s favorite news channel Globovision keeps pumping out its venom 24 hours a day. However, news was revealed by Miguel Angel Perez Pirela on his program Cayendo y Corriendo two days ago that Globovision has spent around US$130,000 on 48 gas masks and 118 bullet proof vests for its employees. Does Globovision know that something is afoot? These are elections not the prologue to some sort of conflict or civil war……………………Perez Pirela showed the invoices and details of this strange purchase for a TV station.
Yon Goicoechea Lara was the "student leader" who led a relatively small faction of students in attacks on police and military in 2007 and 2008 and was later awarded the Milton Friedman Prize of $500,000 according to the CATO Institute. The "peaceful protests" he led included armed attacks on Chavista students and lighting a police car on fire after pouring gasoline into it while police were inside. The police and military displayed an amazing amount of restraint and never attacked these students. He was praised for his work by Human Rights Foundation who claimed the he was "harrassed" and "persecuted." Yon has been keeping a low profile but suddenly reappeared predicting that Capriles Radonski will win by a million votes on October 7 but be robbed of the presidency by CNE fraud. He and Leopoldo Lopez, a well-known neo-nazi, 2002 coupster, ex-mayor of the richest municipality in South America, Chacao (East Caracas), who is banned from holding public office until 2014 due to corruption charges and now acting as a political hack, are predicting that after CNE declares "fraudulent results" the opposition could be in the streets for weeks, possibly months and a "massacre" of opposition protestors by the military. Miami Nuevo Herald, read by many Venezuelan opposition members predict this same outcome.
Maybe Plan “V” is designed to start some sort of armed conflict in Venezuela since it is impossible to get rid of Chavez democratically. Is there a plan to “Syrianize” Venezuela hatched by the CIA and State Department? After all, if Syria is so important that a civil war can be manufactured by arming the Free Syrian Army, surely the US and Israel would be willing to invest in a similar mercenary army in Venezuela since there are 297.5 billion barrels of crude oil on Venezuelan territory. More than Saudi Arabia.
After October 7th and by the end of 2012 we should all know what the intentions of the imperialists and their lackeys in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.
READ MORE ANALYSIS AND ESSAYS BY
AXIS OF LOGIC COLUMNIST, ARTURO ROSALES