Astana conference to bring peace to Syria opens with predictable
recriminations and posing, but its ultimate success will depend on the
extent to which Russia, Syria and Turkey are able to work together.
The conference began with the usual frosty exchanges between
the representatives of the Syrian government and of the Jihadi groups
who have been invited to attend the conference, and who have agreed to
do so. Each side – equally predictably – has also refused to meet and
engage with the other in direct talks.
As important as who is at the conference is who is absent and who has been excluded.
The two main Jihadi terrorist groups – ISIS and Al-Qaeda –
have of course been excluded even though they account for most of the
Jihadi fighters in Syria.
The biggest single Jihadi group invited to the conference,
after bitter internal arguments refused to go, though in reality it is
in close touch with the other Jihadi groups who have gone to the
conference, and who are therefore in effect acting as its proxies.
The powerful Kurdish militia the YPG has been excluded at Turkey’s insistence.
The US, Jordan and the Arab Gulf States – all stalwart supporters of the Jihadi opposition – have been sidelined.
Notwithstanding the wholly predictable poses at the start of
the conference, and the important absences from it, the Astana
conference does have two things going for it which the previous UN
sponsored negotiations in Geneva – which have led nowhere – did not.
Firstly the Astana conference brings together the Syrian
government with Jihadi groups who have an actual presence on the ground
in Syria, rather than out-of-touch exiled Syrian politicians, who have
been representing the Syrian opposition in Geneva, and who may not have
much actual influence on the Jihadi fighters on the ground.
Secondly – and far more importantly – the three key outside
powers with a military presence on the ground in Syria – Russia, Turkey
and Iran – are co-sponsoring the conference. Between them these three
powers have immense leverage over the parties – probably enough to force
an end to the conflict.
The success or failure of the Astana conference will depend
on the extent to which these three powers are able to work together to
bring the conflict to an end.
Source: The Duran |